Scope and method

This page says what the report can answer and what it cannot. Read it first.

How it is built

• Data. Minute and daily prices come from Databento (ICE / CME official feeds); US weekly stocks from the EIA; positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report; spot and freight from FRED, Ship & Bunker and other public sources; country-level supply and demand from JODI, the EIA international series and national statistics. Every number in the report carries its source and observation period.
• News. Three layers — RSS, the official X API and EventRegistry — aggregated, ranked by importance and capped per source. Timestamps are publication time, not the time the event happened.
• Writing. A large language model drafts from the structured facts above; a human then checks every number and definition before publication. A draft only ships after passing automated gates: every figure must trace to the fact pack, units must be consistent, and length and structure must comply.

What it does not do

• No price targets. Local testing showed point forecasts do no better than a random walk, so we stopped making them.
• No trade recommendations, and no representation of any institution's position.
• No directional technical calls. Common indicator combinations hit below a coin flip over five years of local backtesting, so we publish measurable state instead (ranges, percentiles, realised moves) and never "bullish / bearish".
• Where data is not available we say so explicitly rather than substituting a neighbouring grade or region.

Known limits

• The report window is 08:00 Singapore time to 08:00 the next day. "Change inside the window" and "change versus the previous settlement" are two different numbers; both are given.
• Some spot assessments are paid agency prices and are not included here; those cells show "—".
• Monthly supply-demand data lags on a publication cadence and the last periods are often under-reported. The report drops contaminated periods rather than extrapolating.
• A human in the loop means issues can be missed; the site shows the publication status of the current day.